Jamaica business confidence rises 2.3% in Q2 2026 despite weak economy

Business confidence in Jamaica climbed 2.3 per cent in the second quarter of 2026, according to the Business and Consumer Confidence survey run by Market Research Services under Don Anderson. That rebound follows a 6.5 per cent drop in the first quarter.

The earlier slide was widely tied to Category 5 Hurricane Melissa, which struck Jamaica at the end of October 2025. The island has posted negative growth for two consecutive quarters — a pattern many reputable economists would describe as a recession. The Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) has stated that the economy is not in poor condition and is not going through an L-shaped recession.

Anderson is widely regarded as Jamaica’s leading pollster, known for his reputation and methodological discipline. Newer survey firms have entered the field, but the source notes that none yet equal his standards.

The rebound in business sentiment sits uneasily beside other indicators. Inflation is rising and now stands at 4.3 per cent, while energy costs are also climbing, with oil back at US$100 a barrel. Tourism remains sluggish, remittances are down, the equities market is flat, and agriculture is contracting.

Over the first half of this year the Jamaican economy has shrunk by 11 per cent, with real GDP falling. Government revenues are also lower; some observers put the shortfall at J$22 billion under budget. Against that backdrop, an improvement in business confidence is difficult to reconcile — unless the Government moves quickly on recovery measures after Melissa, which could account for the lift.

Consumer confidence, by contrast, declined 2.3 per cent in the second quarter, Market Research Services found, after gaining 5.7 per cent in the quarter before.