Jamaica activates drought committee as forecasters track likely major El Niño

Jamaica has activated the National Drought Management Committee, which is expected to convene within the next 10 days as forecasters warn of hotter and less rainy conditions.

The Meteorological Service says it is watching developing climate signals that point to the possible formation of an El Niño event. The weather pattern could affect rainfall and temperatures across Jamaica over the coming months.

Although much of the island recorded above-normal rainfall during the usual dry months from January to April, newer data show several sections of the country moving into a warmer, drier spell. Existing climate signs indicate that a major El Niño could develop during the year.

In a statement issued today, the Ministry of Water, Environment and Climate Change said El Niño has, in past years, been linked to lower rainfall in parts of the Caribbean and higher temperatures. Those conditions can increase drought danger and worsen heat-related problems.

If the latest forecasts hold, Jamaica could see weaker rainfall during summer and in the period before the main rainy season, which peaks in October. That could strain water supplies, farming and environmental systems, while adding heat stress for crops and livestock.

The Meteorological Service says it will keep reviewing the situation through climate assessments, forecast models and work with regional and international partners. Evan Thompson, principal director of the Meteorological Service of Jamaica, said the agency is monitoring the changes closely and will continue giving guidance to stakeholders and the public.