China forecasts strong to super El Nino this year

China is forecasting the development of a strong to super El Nino event this summer and autumn, raising the likelihood of heavier rainfall in the country’s south, more intense heat waves and an increased risk of flooding extending into next year, the National Climate Center said recently.

Sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific have continued to rise since June, with the temperature anomaly in the key monitoring region reaching 1.6 C, up 0.64 C from May, the centre said.

It forecasts that sea surface temperatures in the region will continue to rise, leading to the formation of an eastern Pacific-type strong to super El Niño during the summer and autumn.

Experts at the centre said weather patterns associated with El Niño and other climate signals are expected to make torrential rain, flooding, meteorological drought, heat waves and typhoon-related rainfall the main weather hazards during the peak summer months of July and August.

As El Niño reaches maturity in autumn and winter, southern China — particularly South China and the Yangtze River basin — is likely to receive above-average rainfall, while temperatures across most parts of the country are expected to remain above normal, the centre said.

During the spring and summer of next year, when El Niño is forecast to weaken and dissipate, above-average rainfall is still expected across broad areas of China, increasing the risk of flooding in multiple river basins, including the Yangtze River.

Most parts of the country are also expected to experience significantly above-normal temperatures, with stronger and more widespread summer heat waves.

Major grain-producing regions in northeastern and northern China should prepare for the potential effects of excessive rainfall and flooding on agricultural production, while northwestern China, including the Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, should strengthen drought preparedness amid hotter and drier conditions, the centre said.

Tan Zhemin, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and president of Nanjing University, said El Niño’s impacts extend across regions and industries and often emerge with a time lag.

Governments and businesses should strengthen climate forecasting and early warning systems, improve coordination among key sectors and reinforce supply chain risk management to enhance overall resilience to a strong El Niño event, he said.