El Niño Expected To Ease Atlantic Hurricane Activity This Season

A strengthening El Niño now taking shape is expected to reduce activity in the coming Atlantic hurricane season, according to United States government and independent weather specialists. They cautioned, however, that the pattern will not eliminate the risk of destructive tropical systems.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its Atlantic seasonal forecast on Thursday, putting the likelihood of a quieter-than-usual season at 55 per cent. NOAA expects eight to 14 named storms, with three to six developing into hurricanes and one to three reaching major hurricane strength.

In an average season, the Atlantic produces 14 named storms. Seven normally become hurricanes, while three usually grow into major hurricanes, a threshold above 110 miles per hour, or 177 kilometres per hour.

Private and university forecasting teams have issued similar assessments. Eighteen such groups have produced seasonal projections, with most pointing to lower activity through the summer and fall. Their combined outlook averages about 12 named storms, five hurricanes and two major hurricanes. They also estimate that the Accumulated Cyclone Energy index, which measures storms by both power and lifespan, will run at roughly 80 per cent of normal.

Colorado State University, which began the field of seasonal hurricane forecasting in 1984, projects the weakest overall Atlantic activity since 2015. That year brought the strongest El Niño in 75 years. Phil Klotzbach, Colorado State's hurricane specialist, said the university's numbers are expected to be lowered further in June.

Klotzbach noted that nine of the last 10 Atlantic hurricane seasons have either exceeded normal levels or become hyperactive. Columbia University climate scientist and tropical weather expert Suzana Camargo said last year's season opened slowly before accelerating, nearly matching records with three Category 5 hurricanes, including Melissa, which badly damaged Jamaica and Cuba.

Munich Re, the insurance company, says inflation-adjusted losses worldwide from tropical cyclones have climbed sharply, moving from an annual average of US$11.4 billion in the 1980s to US$109.7 billion a year over the past decade. The company said three-quarters of that damage occurred in the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean.