El Niño May Keep 2026 Hurricane Count Lower, But Caribbean Still Faces Serious Weather Risks

An Associated Press photograph by Orvil Samuel showed damage from Hurricane Elsa in Cedars, St. Vincent, on Friday, July 2, 2021, with a downed utility pole resting near a home balcony. Elsa became the Atlantic season’s first hurricane that Friday, damaging roofs and trees across the eastern Caribbean as authorities shut schools, commercial activity and airports.

Caribbean climatologist Cedric Van Meerbeeck says the Atlantic hurricane season for 2026 is expected to be less active than usual, but he is cautioning that the region should not treat the outlook as low-risk. He said dangerous storms, heavy flooding, dry spells and punishing heat could still affect Caribbean countries.

Van Meerbeeck delivered the forecast in The Bahamas during the 2026 Wet/Hurricane Season Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum. He said a strong El Niño pattern is likely to influence the Caribbean, a climate setup that often reduces tropical cyclone formation but can also drive hotter conditions and less settled weather.

He characterised the season as “erratic,” saying the number of storms may be lower while the danger from severe rain episodes, sudden flooding and lengthy heat waves could increase.

His projection calls for roughly five hurricanes in the 2026 Atlantic season, with two of them reaching major hurricane strength. That would put the season below the long-term average for hurricane activity.

Even so, Van Meerbeeck said above-normal sea temperatures in sections of the northern Caribbean, including Jamaica, Cuba and The Bahamas, may help trigger episodes of extreme weather.

He also said the wet season could ease drought in some territories, but the rainfall may still fall short of what is needed to avoid water pressure later in the year. He urged governments and communities to improve drought planning and build up water storage while rain is available.

Van Meerbeeck said El Niño-related heat is expected to create added strain for vulnerable groups, especially elderly people and children. He added that warmer nights may worsen health risks because people would get less relief after hot days.

He warned that a quieter hurricane season does not remove the threat to the Caribbean, as one powerful storm can still badly affect infrastructure, farming, water supplies and national economies.