Jamaica not in recession despite two negative quarters - PIOJ

 

The Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) says the country is not in a recession. 

 

The statement comes after Jamaica recorded two consecutive quarters of negative growth - the first being the negative 7.5 per cent recorded for the period October to December 2025, which was after Hurricane Melissa, and now the negative 5.9 per cent recorded for the period ending March 2026. 

 

But, according to Senior Director of Economic Planning Research and Policy Logistics at the PIOJ, James Stewart, although the projections are negative, the economy is showing signs of recovery. 

 

"[There is] no possibility of a recession. STATIN will publish the seasonalised quarter-on-quarter performance in their report. But we are suspecting that as...the negative conditions from Melissa eases, each successive quarter, there will be a growth relative to the preceding quarter. So you wouldn't find two consecutive quarters of decline during the quarter-on-quarter comparison," he explained.

 

Jamaica's economy contracted by 5.9 per cent for the first quarter of the year. The growth was stifled by Hurricane Melissa. But what about economic growth for the fiscal year that ended March 2026? 

 

"The economy is now estimated to have contracted by 1.6 per cent for fiscal year 2025-26. This revised projection compares with an initial projection for growth of 1.9 per cent, indicating that the shock of Hurricane Melissa resulted in a loss of 3.5 percentage points in real value added output," said PIOJ Director General Dr. Wayne Henry.