Fisher urges cautious positioning as JSEC-backed Guyana forum weighs Fed shift and oil boom

Georgetown — Gregory Fisher, managing director of Jeff, used opening remarks at a Jamaica Stock Exchange–backed regional conference in Guyana—running for a second straight year and modelled on long-standing Kingston forums—to argue that investors should privilege sturdy defence on fixed income even as equity markets stay buoyant.

Fisher, who said he has worked with Guyanese clients for more than fifteen years, stressed that his comments might not reflect Jeff LLC’s house view. He placed the moment at the close of 2024, citing a United States presidential contest days away, wider geopolitical strain, yet resilient United States equity sentiment. He described the Federal Reserve as having pivoted toward accommodation after prior tightening, linked rate cuts to disinflationary pressure, and maintained that “playing a good defence in order to create a solid offence” still fits his personal playbook now that large-scale stimulus has faded.

On rates and Treasuries, Fisher contended that Fed cuts are not automatically bullish for stocks outside recessions, and that bonds can perform through easing cycles even without recession. He noted a historical pattern that only about half of a cycle peak-to-trough move in the ten-year Treasury yield tends to arrive with the first cut, a relationship he said he had watched across decades. He drew parallels to 2007 and to a surprise half-point cut under Alan Greenspan in 2001, arguing that outsized initial cuts aim to unwind lagged damage from earlier hikes and that fixed income often rewards patience when inflation cycles turn. He warned that a yield curve moving from inversion toward a positive slope has usually preceded economic contraction within months, and said he still expects the ten-year yield near 2.25 per cent within about a year in a “normalized” cycle, without a return to zero policy rates.

Pivoting to Guyana, Fisher hailed what he called the largest petroleum find anywhere in more than a decade, with production exceeding early ExxonMobil projections. Citing International Monetary Fund material discussed on stage, he referenced an additional 7.3 per cent expansion layered on the Fund’s 2023 forecast alongside a sharply higher overall outlook, described the state as the world’s fastest-growing economy, and noted non-oil gross domestic product rising more than 12 per cent. He said revenues should fund infrastructure, health, and education if managed well, called the outlook bright but dependent on inclusive planning, and argued disciplined fiscal policy and strong external partners could help Guyana ride out a slowing global cycle while deepening its Caricom leadership role. He congratulated citizens, urged learning from other Caribbean states that converted resource booms into lasting stability, and closed by thanking Jamaica Stock Exchange leaders including chair Steve Winningham and managing director Dr Marlene Street Forrest, NCB Capital Markets chief executive Agnes Young, and the organisers for hosting the session again.