Why inflation is falling but Jamaicans still feel squeezed?

JAMAICA’S inflation rate fell again in April.

Electricity costs dropped sharply. The Statistical Institute of Jamaica (Statin) reported that the country’s Consumer Price Index declined 0.3 per cent for the month, helped mainly by lower electricity rates.

On paper, that sounds like good news. But many Jamaicans likely did not feel relief.

Groceries are still expensive. Petrol prices increased again. Rent remains high. School fees are rising. Eating out costs more. And after years of repeated price increases following the pandemic, global supply chain disruptions and hurricane impacts, many households are still adjusting to a permanently higher cost structure.

That disconnect — falling inflation but persistent financial pressure — is becoming one of the most misunderstood parts of the Jamaican economy because lower inflation does not mean prices are falling broadly across the economy.

It means prices are rising more slowly than before.

And sometimes, as happened in April, it simply means one major category — in this case electricity — fell enough to offset increases elsewhere.

Statin said food prices rose 0.6 per cent during April, driven largely by a 6.2 per cent jump in fruit and nut prices including ripe bananas, oranges and watermelon. Petrol prices also pushed transport costs higher.

So while the overall inflation number moved downward, many of the items consumers buy most frequently continued becoming more expensive.

That helps explain why many households still feel squeezed despite inflation remaining within the Bank of Jamaica’s target range.

The inflation misunderstanding

Inflation is often confused with prices themselves.

But inflation measures the rate at which prices are changing — not whether goods are cheap or expensive.

If inflation falls from 8 per cent to 4 per cent, prices are still increasing. They are simply increasing more slowly.

And after several years of elevated inflation globally, many prices remain well above where they were before the pandemic.

A family that once spent $15,000 weekly on groceries may now spend $23,000 or more. Even if inflation slows, that family rarely sees prices return to earlier levels.

That is why inflation statistics and lived experience often feel disconnected.

The official numbers may show stabilisation but consumers may still feel financial fatigue.

Electricity is doing heavy lifting

April’s inflation decline was driven overwhelmingly by one factor: electricity.

Statin said the ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’ division fell 4.3 per cent during the month, after electricity-related costs declined 12.5 per cent.

That matters, because electricity affects nearly every part of the economy. Lower electricity costs can ease pressure on businesses, transportation, manufacturing, distribution and household budgets simultaneously.

Jamaica’s inflation picture over the past year has increasingly reflected movements in global energy prices, alongside weather-related food disruptions.

When oil prices ease and fuel-related charges decline, inflation tends to soften quickly.

But food behaves differently.

Agricultural prices remain highly vulnerable to droughts, hurricanes, supply disruptions and seasonal shortages. That volatility continues showing up in the monthly data.

Over the past year, prices for items in the ‘Fruits and nuts’ category jumped 26.3 per cent while fish and seafood costs rose 11.4 per cent, adding to pressure on household grocery bills.

That is why consumers often feel inflation most intensely in supermarkets and markets, even when overall inflation is moderating.

Why the Bank of Jamaica cares

The Bank of Jamaica is not trying to make prices fall broadly across the economy. Its main goal is preventing inflation from becoming unstable.

High inflation creates uncertainty. Businesses struggle to price goods properly. Borrowing becomes riskier. Savings lose value faster. Consumers delay spending. Investment decisions become harder.

That is why the BOJ targets inflation between four and six per cent.

April’s point-to-point inflation rate remained at 4.3 per cent, comfortably inside that range.

That likely strengthens expectations that the central bank could maintain relatively stable interest rates when its Monetary Policy Committee meets later this week.

For consumers, that matters directly. Higher interest rates generally make mortgages, car loans, credit cards and business loans more expensive. Stable rates reduce the risk of borrowing costs rising even further.

But stable inflation does not immediately solve affordability problems. It mainly prevents conditions from worsening more rapidly.

The deeper economic shift

What Jamaica may now be entering is not a period of “cheap living” but a period of slower price growth.

That is a very different thing.

For years, the global economy experienced unusually low inflation. Consumers became accustomed to relatively stable prices.

The post-pandemic world changed that.

Global shipping disruptions, wars, climate shocks, labour shortages and energy volatility pushed costs higher across multiple sectors simultaneously.

Many economists now believe the world may be entering a structurally more inflationary era than the one that existed before 2020.

If that is true, consumers may need to adjust expectations around what constitutes “normal” prices.

That does not mean inflation will spiral uncontrollably but it may mean households will continue facing elevated costs even during periods when inflation appears statistically stable.

Why this matters politically and socially

Inflation is not merely an economic issue; it shapes public mood.

When people feel their salaries cannot stretch far enough, frustration rises regardless of what official statistics show.

That is why governments globally have struggled politically even as inflation rates moderated from post-pandemic highs.

Consumers experience prices emotionally and personally:

the grocery bill,

the taxi fare,

the light bill,

the lunch money,

the rent payment.

And food inflation tends to hit psychologically harder because consumers encounter it repeatedly throughout the week.

In Jamaica’s case, that pressure is especially important because wages in many sectors have not risen at the same pace as cumulative price increases over recent years.

So even with inflation slowing, many households remain in recovery mode financially.

The bigger question

The more important question now may not be whether inflation is falling. It may be whether incomes are rising fast enough for consumers to rebuild purchasing power after several difficult years . Because ultimately, inflation statistics matter less to households than one practical issue: Can people afford to live comfortably again?