Jamaica debt burden edges up as fiscal monitor flags $2.4 trillion public debt stock

Jamaica's public debt burden has moved up slightly, with the independent fiscal monitor reporting an eight per cent rise in the total stock of public debt.

The Independent Fiscal Commission (IFC), in its latest assessment, said debt held by the specified public sector stood at $2.4 trillion at the end of March this year. That category covers central government and selected self-financing public bodies. The figure was $179.8 billion higher than the level recorded a year earlier.

The IFC operates as Jamaica's non-partisan fiscal oversight agency, with responsibility for reviewing, measuring and reporting on whether the Government is meeting its fiscal rules.

In a 56-page report examining Jamaica's economic performance for the 2025-2026 fiscal year, the commission said preliminary figures to the end of March led it to estimate the country's debt-to-GDP ratio at 65.6 per cent. That compared with 62.5 per cent at the end of March last year.

The watchdog said the latest estimate was still lower than the 68.9 per cent ratio the Government had projected in the Fiscal Policy Paper released in February. It attributed the difference to public debt being below forecast in nominal terms, while nominal GDP was stronger than expected.

Jamaica had been positioned to bring the debt-to-GDP ratio down to 60 per cent by the close of the current fiscal year, but the fiscal rules were suspended after Hurricane Melissa caused major damage last October.

The IFC said that, with the rules suspended, the Government has not yet passed legislation setting a revised deadline for returning the ratio to 60 per cent.

"The IFC reiterates that robust fiscal consolidation efforts will be essential to returning the debt to a sustained downward path toward this ceiling," the commission said in the report.

It added that once the suspension ends, the Government is expected, in keeping with the Financial Administration and Audit Act, to set out those steps in the next Fiscal Policy Paper.