PIOJ says AI could put clerical and professional jobs at risk in Jamaica

The Planning Institute of Jamaica says artificial intelligence is expected to push some clerical and professional employees out of their current roles, although studies are still being done to determine how widely the technology could affect the labour market.

PIOJ Director General Dr Wayne Henry addressed the issue on Wednesday during the agency's quarterly media briefing. "There is still some debate on the exact type and nature of jobs to be replaced," he said.

The comments were made as Jamaica's economy recorded an estimated 5.9 per cent decline for the January to March 2026 quarter, when measured against the same period in 2025.

Henry said Jamaica cannot treat AI as a distant development, but must prepare workers and businesses to use it productively. "We have to engage with the technology in different ways, and we have to pivot and position ourselves to benefit as we continue to see the promulgation of this new technology," he said.

He noted that thinking around AI has changed. Earlier concerns focused mostly on routine, lower-level tasks, but the technology is now viewed as a threat to more skilled areas as well, including work that depends on complex calculations, such as actuarial science.

"The overall value proposition is that AI adoption will improve productivity," Henry said. He added that existing research indicates trained workers may be able to use AI to raise their output. "So, there's a mixed bag in terms of the analysis so far."

A University of Technology, Jamaica study by Paul Golding, titled 'Impact of Artificial Intelligence on the Jamaican Job Market: Quantity and Quality,' found that about 22 per cent of the local workforce has medium to high exposure to automation. Within that category, 56,695 people, equal to 4.0 per cent of the labour force, are considered highly exposed.

Jamaica's workforce is now estimated at 1.44 million, according to the Statistical Institute of Jamaica. The UTech paper also says AI-driven automation is likely to weigh more heavily on occupations dominated by women, especially clerical jobs and call centre posts.

Henry said the UTech research points to about 60,000 jobs being at risk. He said the Government's answer is focused on building human capital and expanding skills training. "That's our overall strategy of resilience building."

The PIOJ is forecasting a quick V-shaped rebound, with economic growth expected to fall between 1.0 and 3.0 per cent for the fiscal year ending March 2027. That outlook depends on Jamaica avoiding any major new shock while the economy continues recovering from Hurricanes Beryl and Melissa in 2024 and 2025.