Met Service flags drought risk as El Niño develops; Tourism 3.0 framework launched

Jamaica could face a drought similar to the severe dry spell of about four years ago if a developing El Niño intensifies through the summer, according to Evan Thompson, principal director of the Meteorological Services Branch in the Ministry of Water, Environment and Climate Change.

Thompson said El Niño — unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific that form part of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) — has begun to take shape. An El Niño is declared when temperatures remain more than half a degree Celsius above normal; this episode could exceed two degrees, a level linked to a severe or so-called super El Niño.

For the Caribbean, he said, the pattern typically brings hotter weather and below-normal rainfall. Warm nights, greater evaporation, stress on people and livestock, and risks to food security could follow. Hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, though El Niño is not tied only to that period.

He urged households to prepare for unusually dry conditions by harvesting rain when it falls, expanding storage such as drums and barrels, and considering wells or desalination if reservoirs and aquifers fall short for the December-to-March dry season.

Separately, the Ministry of Tourism has launched Tourism 3.0, a 10-priority framework meant to grow Jamaica through tourism rather than grow tourism alone. Expanded airlift includes Virgin Atlantic from Heathrow to seven weekly flights, British Airways from Gatwick to four weekly, and Copa Airlines from Panama to 14 weekly by January 2027, plus services involving Wingo from Medellín, Breeze from Tampa, Porter from Toronto, Ottawa and Hamilton, Air Canada from Halifax, Ottawa, Edmonton and Winnipeg, and a Guadeloupe link that opens a Paris connection.

The ministry is advancing a tourism supply logistics centre as the fifth industry-specific special economic zone under the Special Economic Zone Act 2016. More than 25,000 workers have been certified through the Jamaica Centre for Tourism Innovation, with annual output rising from 40 graduates in 2017 to more than 3,000 by the end of the 2025-26 financial year. Plans include AI-supported foreign-language training, an AI multilingual digital concierge from the Jamaica Tourist Board, and a Local First policy due by the end of the current fiscal year.

Officials reminded the public that a flash flood watch signals possible flooding while a warning means flooding has begun or is imminent; tropical storm or hurricane watches cover about 36 hours and warnings about 24 hours. The Meteorological Service advises keeping a battery-powered radio and calling 116 for alerts. Health messages urged sunscreen of SPF 30 or higher, shade between 10 a.m. and 4 p.m., and parental oversight of adolescents on social media.