Jamaica urged to prepare for possible severe El Nino during 2026 summer

Jamaica is being advised to prepare for drier and hotter conditions this summer as El Nino develops in the equatorial Pacific, with forecasters warning the event could become severe. Evan Thompson, principal director of the Meteorological Services Branch in the Ministry of Water, Environment, and Climate Change, said the pattern can alter weather across regions, including the Caribbean, during the June 1 to November 30 hurricane season and beyond.

Thompson explained that El Nino is the warm phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), identified when sea-surface temperatures in a key Pacific zone remain at least 0.5 degrees Celsius above normal over time. He said the opposite phase, La Nina, occurs when temperatures in that area stay unusually cooler than average.

According to Thompson, the current event is expected to strengthen through the summer and may exceed 2 degrees Celsius above normal. At that level, he said, it is often described as a major or severe El Nino, with potentially stronger impacts than in weaker episodes.

For Jamaica and the wider Caribbean, he said the main concerns are above-normal heat and below-normal rainfall. Thompson warned that even a one-degree rise can produce significant effects, including greater evaporation, added heat stress for people, and warmer nights that limit recovery from daytime temperatures.

He also said lower rainfall could reduce water availability for homes, agriculture and livestock, while raising the risk of dehydration and pressure on food production.

Looking ahead to the usual September-October rainfall peak, Thompson said weaker rains could leave aquifers, dams and reservoirs below needed levels before the traditional dry period from December to March. He cautioned that Jamaica could face drought conditions similar to the intense spell experienced about four years ago.

He urged early preparation, including household rainwater harvesting and expanded storage such as drums and tanks, so families can capture water when rain does fall. He added that authorities may need to examine additional supply options if prolonged dryness materialises.