Fair skies tonight, afternoon showers and storms into next week

A shallow tropical wave and weak trough near the centre of the Caribbean basin are producing isolated thunderstorms over parts of Cuba, Jamaica and Hispaniola. As the system clears, conditions across the region are expected to turn gradually fairer. Seas remain stable, with high pressure still the main influence over much of the Caribbean. A thin dust layer continues to affect the atmosphere over the central and western basin.

Tonight, skies across Jamaica should stay generally fair. Temperatures are forecast to fall to 26°C in Kingston and Montego Bay. Winds are expected from the north along the south coast and from the southeast along the north coast.

Thursday morning should bring more showers, mainly over eastern parishes. In the afternoon, showers and isolated thunderstorms are favoured over western areas. Daytime highs are expected near 35°C in both Kingston and Montego Bay, under partly cloudy skies for much of the day.

Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are also indicated for Half Way Tree, Spanish Town and Mandeville, and farther west in Santa Cruz, Black River, Savanna-la-Mar and Negril. Similar activity is forecast for Montego Bay and Lucea; for St. Ann’s Bay, Ocho Rios and Port Maria; and in the east at Moore Town, Richmond, Christiana and Morant.

Afternoon showers are expected to persist through the rest of this week and into the start of next week on Sunday.

For marine conditions Thursday, north-coast winds are forecast at 10 to 15 knots from the east-northeast, with seas up to 1.5 metres. On the south coast, an east-southeasterly flow of 15 to 20 knots should raise wave heights to between 1.5 and 2 metres. Offshore, easterly winds of 15 to 20 knots and seas of 1.5 to 2 metres are expected, with no warnings in effect.

That marine pattern looks set to continue into the weekend, with easterly winds of 15 to 20 knots on Friday and Saturday, and easterlies again on Sunday with seas building to about 2 metres.

Sunset Thursday is at 6:44 p.m. in Kingston and 6:50 p.m. at Negril Point.