New trade order?

Declaring that modern commerce can no longer be separated from global politics, India’s Foreign Affairs Minister Dr Subrahmanyam Jaishankar is urging Jamaican business leaders to aggressively pursue new markets and supply chains as geopolitical tensions continue to disrupt global trade.

Speaking on Monday at the Ministry of Industry, Investment and Commerce’s ministerial luncheon at AC Hotel Kingston, Jaishankar warned that businesses across the world are being forced to rethink long-standing trade patterns as conflicts and economic instability increasingly spill across borders.

He argued that companies can no longer afford to ignore the political realities shaping global commerce, pointing to the ripple effects caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, and current tensions in the Middle East.

“Because we are today so globalised, conflict or a crisis anywhere actually has global ramifications. So we are a few thousand miles away but events there are actually determining not just energy, they’re determining inflation, they will even determine the fiscal deficits of countries, [and] they could even, in some cases as we saw after Ukraine, influence political stability in countries,” Jaishankar said.

The Indian minister said the disruptions of recent years have exposed the dangers of depending too heavily on traditional supply routes and familiar trading partners, particularly as countries increasingly move to protect their own economic interests.

“The COVID [pandemic] had already demonstrated that supply chains cannot be taken for granted. The tariff volatility of the last few years has demonstrated that market access also cannot be taken for granted, and, in fact, the growth of technology has provided the possibility for new businesses and, therefore, for new relationships. So just as we think that the international, the global order is in a political turn, we should not ignore the fact that, actually, there is a simultaneous business turn, as well, taking place. Every country today is looking for more partners, different partners,” he said.

Against this backdrop, Jaishankar encouraged Jamaican and Caribbean businesses to broaden their outlook and position themselves within a rapidly changing international economy in which countries are now searching for alternative partners and more reliable networks.

“And in that world today, how do we strategise, how do we create more options, how do we build more relationships? That is actually the case that I make as a foreign minister to my own colleagues, to my own businesses, which is go and explore new things, go and explore new places, look at regional hubs…look for near-shuttle, because this is the reality of this uncertain world. We can’t again think of necessarily doing business sitting at home,” he said.

Jaishankar pointed to India’s own experience following the outbreak of conflict in the Gulf region, when disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz threatened supplies of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), a major cooking fuel for Indian households. According to the minister, India was forced to rapidly seek alternative suppliers, and found new opportunities in Latin America and the Caribbean.

“Now, 10 years ago we would have not only not thought about it, but probably the economics of it would have been very much more challenging than it is today,” he said.

He also highlighted the growing commercial ties between India and the wider Latin American and Caribbean region, noting that annual trade between the sides is now approaching US$50 billion and continuing to expand.

He said advancements in logistics, infrastructure, and digital technology have significantly reduced the barriers once created by geography, opening fresh opportunities for smaller states like Jamaica to deepen trade and investment links with major economies.

He pointed to India’s rapid infrastructure expansion, including new highways, airports, rail networks, and its growing digital economy, as evidence of the country’s increasing competitiveness and capacity to expand internationally.

With India increasingly positioning itself as a major global economic player, Jaishankar signalled that the country is eager to strengthen commercial ties with Jamaica and the wider Caribbean as both sides search for new opportunities in an uncertain global climate.

“I know that there is a lot that Jamaica has to offer in terms of its location, in terms of its own demand, in terms of your own recovery and your own modernisation programme…and I am very sure that in a whole lot of areas you will see Indian companies, Indian capabilities, Indian innovation step out much more than it has before. And I would urge you, on your part, to explore those opportunities,” he told the business leaders.