Jamaica weather forecast tracks weak western Caribbean disturbance

A weak area of unsettled weather in the western Caribbean is being watched for possible tropical cyclone development over the next seven days, while Jamaica is forecast to see mainly partly cloudy skies and some afternoon showers.

Moisture is shifting out of the Caribbean area toward the western Caribbean and the Gulf, where cloud build-up, showers and thunderstorms are evident. The system remains poorly organised, with the chance of tropical cyclone formation still below 40 per cent during the seven-day outlook period.

Across the central and eastern Caribbean, a high-pressure ridge is strengthening. A light intrusion of dust is also present, and strong winds are expected to continue over the open Caribbean for the next couple of days. Scattered low-level thunderstorms are still linked to a weak trough in the western Caribbean.

For Jamaica tonight, skies should be partly cloudy, with temperatures falling to 25 degrees Celsius in Kingston and Montego Bay. Winds are northerly along the south coast, while the north coast is expected to get northeasterly winds.

Thursday morning should be partly cloudy across most areas, with similar conditions continuing into the afternoon. Daytime temperatures are forecast to climb to 34 degrees Celsius in both Kingston and Montego Bay. A few afternoon showers are expected in Lucea, Montego Bay and Falmouth, while isolated inland showers are forecast for Christiana, Green Hill and Duncan's in Trelawny.

Looking ahead, isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast for Friday. Rainfall and thunderstorm activity should increase on Saturday, with scattered showers expected. By Sunday, much of the activity is projected to affect western sections of the island.

Marine conditions on Thursday should bring east-northeasterly winds of 10 to 15 knots along the north coast, with waves between one and 1.5 metres. The south coast should see east-southeasterly winds of 10 to 15 knots and similar wave heights. Offshore winds may reach 20 knots, pushing waves to two metres. Offshore areas are expected to keep easterly winds of 15 to 20 knots from Friday through Sunday.

Sunset on Thursday is forecast for 6:42 p.m. in Kingston and 6:48 p.m. at Negril Point.